The Bear Position
Posted on May 21, 2008 in the Commentary category
.The stock markets 12% rise in the last two months has the bulls on Wall Street believing that the worst is over, and the market is heading higher the rest of the year. The bears point to the following macro events as to this was simply a bear-market really
- Industrial production fell 0.7% in April as the weak dollar is not helping manufacturing
- S&P reported Q1 earnings of the 500 compnaies were down 25.9% from the same three months last year. This is the 3rd straight quarter of declining profits
- Consumer Confidence of 59.5 hit a 29 year low according to the U of Michigan survey. Funny how $120+ a barrel of oil, $4 gas and skyrocketing food prices can hurt consumer confidence
- Foreclosures are up 65% compared to a year ago and home prices continued their downward spiral. Prices of existing single-family homes fell 7.7% in Q1
- Global food prices are up 43% in the last 12 months
What do you think? Are we in a bear-market rally or are is the bull market back?
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